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John,
There is an established ontological rule: "all things consist of three",
and "establish the triangle and the problem is 2/3 solved". Accordingly, there
might be three types of temporal change: the change in the past, the change in
the present and the change in the future.
Your "how the world would be if..." concerns to the past changes as
well as the future changes, which are to be predicted as far as
"prediction/anticipation/prevision/forecast" is the act of predicting by
reasoning about the future, the ways things happen in the future. Then we know
different types of prediction: economic forecast, scientific predictions,
statistical predictions, religious predictions, political predictions,
astrological predictions, or predictions in fiction. And humanity is not
well-advanced here, being unable to predict neither natural disasters (as in
Japan), nor social disasters (as Soviet collapse). But we try a lot creating
number-crunching machives, powerful algorithms and business intelligence tools
to process data for insight, knowledge and objective patterns.
However, the present changes make a special case. They are not predicted,
rather but detected. Any living thing is able to detect changes in the
environment, external and internal, using simple stimulus-response mechanisms or
more complex reactionary mechanisms: stimulus/change
(receptors/neurons) - coordination/integration/control
(adjustors/interneurons) - response/reaction (effectors/neurons).
Guided by autonomic reflectory arks, information processing mechanisms
(the nervous system), drilliing and learning, we perform a number of
programmed movements, locomotion, daily routines, etc. Due to the vestibular
apparatus, added to the senses, we detect the acceleration and rotation
(gravity). The automatic programmed movements (a sort of autopilot) make most of
human actions, be it car-driving or navigation.
The professional athletes are nothing special here, but just better drilled
and trained in performing the programmed movements and rules, complex motor
coordination. This replicable part of living activities is to be transfered
to robotic systems. Not the trainer, which able to plan a strategy, is not
thus easy to replace my mechanical systems unlike the football player, however
well drilled.
As you well aware, as one of the pioneers, this all is covered by
non-symbolic AI and standard robotics, trying to mimic standard human movements
and physical actions. For planning, reasoning, prediction, we need to go
for cognitive robotics.
IMO, moving in the physical world, interacting with the world,
manipulating with the world's objects, processing the world's instant
representations, are hardly about predictions, in the strict
sense.
Azamat Abdoullaev
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, July 24, 2011 10:35
AM
Subject: Re: [ontolog-forum] intangibles
(was RE: Why most classifications are fuzzy)
Azamat,
Actually, Peirce made the point that we make predictions every minute or
even every second of our lives -- and most of them are so accurate that we
don't even realize that we are making predictions..
> Nowadays our
best prognostication is the weather forecasting.
Every time we take a step, put food on a plate, or go to the bathroom, we
are making predictions about gravity. Just look how people behave when
they're in outer space.
Professional athletes make extremely accurate predictions about how a ball
-- golf, tennis, basketball, baseball, etc. -- will react to their
actions.
Whenever we drive a car (or ride in one), we stake our lives on predictions
about how other drivers will behave.
Whenever we make a plane reservation, we make predictions about other
people's behavior. In fact, every time we accept money from anyone, we
make a huge number of predictions about the behavior of large numbers of
people in society.
Those predictions turn out to be true much more than 99% of the time.
That's far better than predicting the weather.
John
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