On 16/02/2011 10:37 AM, doug foxvog wrote:
> Question answering by a machine such as Watson is not very useful unless
> the system can explain its answers. Thus i am disappointed that IBM's
> "explanation" of its error in Final Jeopardy does not explain why it
> chose its answer.
>
> On Tue, February 15, 2011 21:19, ZENG, MARCIA said:
>> FYI:
>> Watson's Final Jeopardy Blunder In Day 2 Of IBM Challenge was updated:
>>
>> UPDATE: IBM posted this explanation for the mistake on its "Smarter
>> Planet" blog....
>>
>> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/15/watson-final-jeopardy_n_823795.html
> This explanation is little more than "Jeopardy is hard":
> * Category names are tricky and their significance is downgraded.
> * There are cities named Toronto in the US
> * Toronto, Ontario, has an American League baseball team.
>
> This does not explain why "Toronto" was selected as a response.
I suspect that IBM can probably explain why Toronto was selected better
than the head guys at Lehman brothers can explain how they wiped out a
company.
>
> In the IBM ads accompanying the show, they discuss Watson being used
> for diagnosis -- not just for pointing out information that a doctor
> may want to look at for a case. However, without explanation for
> a diagnosis -- or even for a recommendation for reviewing some paper,
> such use seems quite improper.
>
Don't forget that tens of thousands of people die in US hospitals every
year ( a 911 every few weeks) due to highly trained and certified
doctors giving the wrong diagnosis (20% of medical errors is the figure
that is being thrown about). (01)
The goal is not perfection but is is to achieve a significant reduction
is this problem. (02)
I am not sure what a doctor will do with a diagnosis that says
"Watson is 80% sure it is condition X, 10% condition Y and 10% condition Z".
I would hope that doctors would react differently if the result is
"Watson is 40% sure it is condition X, 30% condition Y and 30% condition Z". (03)
I am not sure if Watson will recommend a range of treatment options or
additional tests as well. (04)
It will not be the same system that plays Jeopardy but will use the same
technologies. (05)
A more interesting example in terms of trying to forecast human reaction
is Watson recommending companies that are takeover targets.
If this technology is widely available (financial companies have the
money to buy one), there will be rushes to purchase stocks based on
"Watson says" which is a whole lot easier than actually doing the
analysis manually and applying human biases and experience to the decision. (06)
The best bargains will be outside the Watson top picks since everyone
will have the same expectations for those stocks and their stock prices
will instantly reach the discounted value of the expected merger price. (07)
That will be fun to see. An area that is currently a really black art
practised by highly compensated M&A experts being turned into something
that a secretary can run. (08)
Ron (09)
> -- doug foxvog
>
>> On 2/15/11 8:18 PM, "John F. Sowa"<sowa@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>> On 2/15/2011 4:24 PM, Jerry Hobbs wrote:
>>> Actually I think the question asked for an "anatomical anomaly",
>>> which could be a body part, like a sixth toe, rather than a disability.
>>> The text Watson used referred to the athlete's "wooden leg".
>> I agree. It found the anomaly, but it made an error in not explaining
>> that it was an anomaly. So it should at least get partial credit.
>>
>> On tonight's round, Watson did very well. But it made a category
>> error for which there was no excuse.
>>
>> The category was US Cities, and all three contestants were given
>> 30 seconds to write their answers and the amount they were willing
>> to bet.
>>
>> Question: A city whose largest airport is the name of a war hero
>> and whose second largest airport is the name of a WW II battle.
>>
>> Both humans got the answer right -- Chicago -- and they bet
>> the maximum or almost the maximum.
>>
>> That was tricky because Midway Airport happens to be the
>> name of a battle, but it was not named for the battle.
>>
>> But Watson wrote Toronto and bet $947 (which was a small
>> amount, indicating that it wasn't sure).
>>
>> But the category was "US Cities". It certainly should
>> have checked.
>>
>> John
>>
>>
>>
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>
> =============================================================
> doug foxvog doug@xxxxxxxxxx http://ProgressiveAustin.org
>
> "I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great
> initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours."
> - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
> =============================================================
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