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Re: [ontolog-forum] IBM Watson's Final Jeopardy error "explanation"

To: ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Ron Wheeler <rwheeler@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2011 13:25:57 -0500
Message-id: <4D5C16B5.3040206@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
On 16/02/2011 12:16 PM, Mike Bennett wrote:
> I think the financial industry will stick to semantics rather
> than statistics for now, at least for reporting and risk management.
>
Reporting at the authoring end but I suspect that at the receiving end 
the government and NGOs are going to be very interested in tools that 
help correlate reported data with other industry news and reports.    (01)

Risk management is such a broad category and entails so much information 
that I suspect that a system that can identify and explain the increased 
risk to a portfolio caused by a flood in southern China and a 
demonstration in Cairo on the same day will be hard to resist.    (02)

> Stock picking is another matter, as noted by Ron.
The IBM material that was issued around the "Watson/Jeopardy event" 
specifically mentioned M&A target identification and the feeling 
expressed by one analyst in an interview, that analysts are inundated 
with news, reports and trading patterns/events.
>   I wonder if
> this thing has significantly increased the risk (or scale) of
> another Flash Crash type of event?
>
Anything that can get everyone making the same decision at the same time 
is bound to cause some very interesting "gold rushes" where there are 
more losers than winners but lots of transactions for the 
intermediaries. The guys selling logistics in a gold rush almost always 
made more money than the miners.    (03)

Ron    (04)

> Mike
>
> On 16/02/2011 15:37, doug foxvog wrote:
>> Question answering by a machine such as Watson is not very useful unless
>> the system can explain its answers.  Thus i am disappointed that IBM's
>> "explanation" of its error in Final Jeopardy does not explain why it
>> chose its answer.
>>
>> On Tue, February 15, 2011 21:19, ZENG, MARCIA said:
>>> FYI:
>>> Watson's Final Jeopardy Blunder In Day 2 Of IBM Challenge was updated:
>>>
>>> UPDATE: IBM posted this explanation for the mistake on its "Smarter
>>> Planet" blog....
>>>
>>> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/15/watson-final-jeopardy_n_823795.html
>> This explanation is little more than "Jeopardy is hard":
>> * Category names are tricky and their significance is downgraded.
>> * There are cities named Toronto in the US
>> * Toronto, Ontario, has an American League baseball team.
>>
>> This does not explain why "Toronto" was selected as a response.
>>
>>
>> In the IBM ads accompanying the show, they discuss Watson being used
>> for diagnosis -- not just for pointing out information that a doctor
>> may want to look at for a case.  However, without explanation for
>> a diagnosis -- or even for a recommendation for reviewing some paper,
>> such use seems quite improper.
>>
>> -- doug foxvog
>>
>>> On 2/15/11 8:18 PM, "John F. Sowa"<sowa@xxxxxxxxxxx>   wrote:
>>>
>>> On 2/15/2011 4:24 PM, Jerry Hobbs wrote:
>>>> Actually I think the question asked for an "anatomical anomaly",
>>>> which could be a body part, like a sixth toe, rather than a disability.
>>>> The text Watson used referred to the athlete's "wooden leg".
>>> I agree.  It found the anomaly, but it made an error in not explaining
>>> that it was an anomaly.  So it should at least get partial credit.
>>>
>>> On tonight's round, Watson did very well.  But it made a category
>>> error for which there was no excuse.
>>>
>>> The category was US Cities, and all three contestants were given
>>> 30 seconds to write their answers and the amount they were willing
>>> to bet.
>>>
>>> Question:  A city whose largest airport is the name of a war hero
>>> and whose second largest airport is the name of a WW II battle.
>>>
>>> Both humans got the answer right -- Chicago -- and they bet
>>> the maximum or almost the maximum.
>>>
>>> That was tricky because Midway Airport happens to be the
>>> name of a battle, but it was not named for the battle.
>>>
>>> But Watson wrote Toronto and bet $947 (which was a small
>>> amount, indicating that it wasn't sure).
>>>
>>> But the category was "US Cities".  It certainly should
>>> have checked.
>>>
>>> John
>>>
>>>
>>>
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>> =============================================================
>> doug foxvog    doug@xxxxxxxxxx   http://ProgressiveAustin.org
>>
>> "I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great
>> initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours."
>>       - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
>> =============================================================
>>
>>
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>>
>>
>    (05)


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