Agreed, I think there are some very interesting avenues to
explore for systemic risk analysis. (01)
Mike (02)
On 16/02/2011 18:25, Ron Wheeler wrote:
> On 16/02/2011 12:16 PM, Mike Bennett wrote:
>> I think the financial industry will stick to semantics rather
>> than statistics for now, at least for reporting and risk management.
>>
> Reporting at the authoring end but I suspect that at the receiving end
> the government and NGOs are going to be very interested in tools that
> help correlate reported data with other industry news and reports.
>
> Risk management is such a broad category and entails so much information
> that I suspect that a system that can identify and explain the increased
> risk to a portfolio caused by a flood in southern China and a
> demonstration in Cairo on the same day will be hard to resist.
>
>> Stock picking is another matter, as noted by Ron.
> The IBM material that was issued around the "Watson/Jeopardy event"
> specifically mentioned M&A target identification and the feeling
> expressed by one analyst in an interview, that analysts are inundated
> with news, reports and trading patterns/events.
>> I wonder if
>> this thing has significantly increased the risk (or scale) of
>> another Flash Crash type of event?
>>
> Anything that can get everyone making the same decision at the same time
> is bound to cause some very interesting "gold rushes" where there are
> more losers than winners but lots of transactions for the
> intermediaries. The guys selling logistics in a gold rush almost always
> made more money than the miners.
>
> Ron
>
>> Mike
>>
>> On 16/02/2011 15:37, doug foxvog wrote:
>>> Question answering by a machine such as Watson is not very useful unless
>>> the system can explain its answers. Thus i am disappointed that IBM's
>>> "explanation" of its error in Final Jeopardy does not explain why it
>>> chose its answer.
>>>
>>> On Tue, February 15, 2011 21:19, ZENG, MARCIA said:
>>>> FYI:
>>>> Watson's Final Jeopardy Blunder In Day 2 Of IBM Challenge was updated:
>>>>
>>>> UPDATE: IBM posted this explanation for the mistake on its "Smarter
>>>> Planet" blog....
>>>>
>>>>
>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/15/watson-final-jeopardy_n_823795.html
>>> This explanation is little more than "Jeopardy is hard":
>>> * Category names are tricky and their significance is downgraded.
>>> * There are cities named Toronto in the US
>>> * Toronto, Ontario, has an American League baseball team.
>>>
>>> This does not explain why "Toronto" was selected as a response.
>>>
>>>
>>> In the IBM ads accompanying the show, they discuss Watson being used
>>> for diagnosis -- not just for pointing out information that a doctor
>>> may want to look at for a case. However, without explanation for
>>> a diagnosis -- or even for a recommendation for reviewing some paper,
>>> such use seems quite improper.
>>>
>>> -- doug foxvog
>>>
>>>> On 2/15/11 8:18 PM, "John F. Sowa"<sowa@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> On 2/15/2011 4:24 PM, Jerry Hobbs wrote:
>>>>> Actually I think the question asked for an "anatomical anomaly",
>>>>> which could be a body part, like a sixth toe, rather than a disability.
>>>>> The text Watson used referred to the athlete's "wooden leg".
>>>> I agree. It found the anomaly, but it made an error in not explaining
>>>> that it was an anomaly. So it should at least get partial credit.
>>>>
>>>> On tonight's round, Watson did very well. But it made a category
>>>> error for which there was no excuse.
>>>>
>>>> The category was US Cities, and all three contestants were given
>>>> 30 seconds to write their answers and the amount they were willing
>>>> to bet.
>>>>
>>>> Question: A city whose largest airport is the name of a war hero
>>>> and whose second largest airport is the name of a WW II battle.
>>>>
>>>> Both humans got the answer right -- Chicago -- and they bet
>>>> the maximum or almost the maximum.
>>>>
>>>> That was tricky because Midway Airport happens to be the
>>>> name of a battle, but it was not named for the battle.
>>>>
>>>> But Watson wrote Toronto and bet $947 (which was a small
>>>> amount, indicating that it wasn't sure).
>>>>
>>>> But the category was "US Cities". It certainly should
>>>> have checked.
>>>>
>>>> John
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _________________________________________________________________
>>>> Message Archives: http://ontolog.cim3.net/forum/ontolog-forum/
>>>> Config Subscr: http://ontolog.cim3.net/mailman/listinfo/ontolog-forum/
>>>> Unsubscribe: mailto:ontolog-forum-leave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> Shared Files: http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/
>>>> Community Wiki: http://ontolog.cim3.net/wiki/
>>>> To join: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WikiHomePage#nid1J
>>>> To Post: mailto:ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _________________________________________________________________
>>>> Message Archives: http://ontolog.cim3.net/forum/ontolog-forum/
>>>> Config Subscr: http://ontolog.cim3.net/mailman/listinfo/ontolog-forum/
>>>> Unsubscribe: mailto:ontolog-forum-leave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> Shared Files: http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/
>>>> Community Wiki: http://ontolog.cim3.net/wiki/
>>>> To join: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WikiHomePage#nid1J
>>>> To Post: mailto:ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>
>>> =============================================================
>>> doug foxvog doug@xxxxxxxxxx http://ProgressiveAustin.org
>>>
>>> "I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great
>>> initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours."
>>> - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
>>> =============================================================
>>>
>>>
>>> _________________________________________________________________
>>> Message Archives: http://ontolog.cim3.net/forum/ontolog-forum/
>>> Config Subscr: http://ontolog.cim3.net/mailman/listinfo/ontolog-forum/
>>> Unsubscribe: mailto:ontolog-forum-leave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Shared Files: http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/
>>> Community Wiki: http://ontolog.cim3.net/wiki/
>>> To join: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WikiHomePage#nid1J
>>> To Post: mailto:ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>
>>>
>>>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Message Archives: http://ontolog.cim3.net/forum/ontolog-forum/
> Config Subscr: http://ontolog.cim3.net/mailman/listinfo/ontolog-forum/
> Unsubscribe: mailto:ontolog-forum-leave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Shared Files: http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/
> Community Wiki: http://ontolog.cim3.net/wiki/
> To join: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WikiHomePage#nid1J
> To Post: mailto:ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
> (03)
--
Mike Bennett
Director
Hypercube Ltd.
89 Worship Street
London EC2A 2BF
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7917 9522
Mob: +44 (0) 7721 420 730
www.hypercube.co.uk
Registered in England and Wales No. 2461068 (04)
_________________________________________________________________
Message Archives: http://ontolog.cim3.net/forum/ontolog-forum/
Config Subscr: http://ontolog.cim3.net/mailman/listinfo/ontolog-forum/
Unsubscribe: mailto:ontolog-forum-leave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Shared Files: http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/
Community Wiki: http://ontolog.cim3.net/wiki/
To join: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WikiHomePage#nid1J
To Post: mailto:ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (05)
|