I think the financial industry will stick to semantics rather
than statistics for now, at least for reporting and risk management. (01)
Stock picking is another matter, as noted by Ron. I wonder if
this thing has significantly increased the risk (or scale) of
another Flash Crash type of event? (02)
Mike (03)
On 16/02/2011 15:37, doug foxvog wrote:
> Question answering by a machine such as Watson is not very useful unless
> the system can explain its answers. Thus i am disappointed that IBM's
> "explanation" of its error in Final Jeopardy does not explain why it
> chose its answer.
>
> On Tue, February 15, 2011 21:19, ZENG, MARCIA said:
>> FYI:
>> Watson's Final Jeopardy Blunder In Day 2 Of IBM Challenge was updated:
>>
>> UPDATE: IBM posted this explanation for the mistake on its "Smarter
>> Planet" blog....
>>
>> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/15/watson-final-jeopardy_n_823795.html
> This explanation is little more than "Jeopardy is hard":
> * Category names are tricky and their significance is downgraded.
> * There are cities named Toronto in the US
> * Toronto, Ontario, has an American League baseball team.
>
> This does not explain why "Toronto" was selected as a response.
>
>
> In the IBM ads accompanying the show, they discuss Watson being used
> for diagnosis -- not just for pointing out information that a doctor
> may want to look at for a case. However, without explanation for
> a diagnosis -- or even for a recommendation for reviewing some paper,
> such use seems quite improper.
>
> -- doug foxvog
>
>> On 2/15/11 8:18 PM, "John F. Sowa"<sowa@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>> On 2/15/2011 4:24 PM, Jerry Hobbs wrote:
>>> Actually I think the question asked for an "anatomical anomaly",
>>> which could be a body part, like a sixth toe, rather than a disability.
>>> The text Watson used referred to the athlete's "wooden leg".
>> I agree. It found the anomaly, but it made an error in not explaining
>> that it was an anomaly. So it should at least get partial credit.
>>
>> On tonight's round, Watson did very well. But it made a category
>> error for which there was no excuse.
>>
>> The category was US Cities, and all three contestants were given
>> 30 seconds to write their answers and the amount they were willing
>> to bet.
>>
>> Question: A city whose largest airport is the name of a war hero
>> and whose second largest airport is the name of a WW II battle.
>>
>> Both humans got the answer right -- Chicago -- and they bet
>> the maximum or almost the maximum.
>>
>> That was tricky because Midway Airport happens to be the
>> name of a battle, but it was not named for the battle.
>>
>> But Watson wrote Toronto and bet $947 (which was a small
>> amount, indicating that it wasn't sure).
>>
>> But the category was "US Cities". It certainly should
>> have checked.
>>
>> John
>>
>>
>>
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>
> =============================================================
> doug foxvog doug@xxxxxxxxxx http://ProgressiveAustin.org
>
> "I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great
> initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours."
> - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
> =============================================================
>
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> (04)
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