On 15/02/2011 6:56 PM, doug foxvog wrote:
> On Mon, February 14, 2011 19:41, Patrick Cassidy said:
>> Doug Foxvog wrote:
>>> I'll be interested in what questions it does not answer. I don't think
>>> we'll have any way of knowing if it "clicks" late.
>> The display tonight showed Watson's top 3 answers, with confidence, and in
>> at least one case it had the right answer, at above the minimum confidence
>> level, but didn't get the click. So it apparently clicked late in that
>> case.
> Was that display up by the time the other contestant clicked in?
It happens so fast that you can only figure out the details in a replay.
It is very impressive. (01)
The discussion about the practical uses of the technology in Healthcare
was very interesting. (02)
>> I liked the case where Watson answered "finis" for a Latin-derived word
>> meaning ending where a train can also start. That was about the only one
>> whose answer I knew - "terminal". Also, Watson gave "the 1920's" when the
>> answer ("the twenties") the decade) had already been declared wrong.
> It had been explained that Watson's only input was textual. Watson was
> not receiving oral input. The confidence level it had for "the 1920s"
> did not change when the incorrect answer, "the twenties" was given.
>
> Watson's second best guess for the answer to that question was "1923" --
> which is not a decade. This further demonstrates that Watson is not
> attaching a meaning to its answers.
>
> In the Harry Potter question, who was the killer of various victims,
> Watson ranked "Harry Potter" higher than "Voldemort". This is probably
> because the word "Harry Potter" is more closely associated with the
> others *and* because in the books, Voldemort's name is avoided by the
> characters.
>
> All three segments were probably taped in a single day. There would
> have been no option for programming between the various segments.
>
> -- doug f
>
>> I
>> wonder what lessons Watson's developers will derived from those blunders.
>>
>> In any case, very impressive!!! Congratulations to the whole Watson team.
>> Looking forward to more.
>>
>> Pat
>>
>> Patrick Cassidy
>> MICRA, Inc.
>> 908-561-3416
>> cell: 908-565-4053
>> cassidy@xxxxxxxxx
>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: ontolog-forum-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:ontolog-forum-
>>> bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of doug foxvog
>>> Sent: Monday, February 14, 2011 12:46 PM
>>> To: [ontolog-forum]
>>> Subject: Re: [ontolog-forum] IBM Watson on Jeopardy
>>>
>>> On Mon, February 14, 2011 12:21, Ron Wheeler said:
>>>> So we are now worried that a computer is going to be better than
>>> humans
>>>> at forecasting how a question will be finished?
>>>> I will be completely impressed (blown away actually) if Watson has
>>> the
>>>> answer before the question is asked and is bouncing up and down
>>>> screaming "I know what you want to know and I already have the
>>> answer".
>>>
>>> The question (actually in Jeopardy terms the "answer") is presented in
>>> text form, which is then read allowed. Not only do humans often have
>>> the
>>> answer long before the reading is finished, Watson also often has had
>>> its answer finished (in trial runs) well before the reading is complete.
>>> Both the humans and Watson must wait until the right time before
>>> signaling that they have an answer.
>>>
>>>> Much higher expectations than I originally had!
>>> I'll be interested in what questions it does not answer. I don't think
>>> we'll have any way of knowing if it "clicks" late.
>>>
>>>> Now we have the ultimate computer. It knows the questions and the
>>>> answers - we just have to sit back and watch the world roll on.
>>> Hah!
>>>
>>>> Ron
>>>>
>>>> On 14/02/2011 11:42 AM, doug foxvog wrote:
>>>>> One key advantage that Watson has is timing. One can not push the
>>>>> button
>>>>> to signal a question as soon as one guesses it, but must wait until
>>> the
>>>>> spoken answer is finished. If one pushes the button too soon, there
>>> is
>>>>> a
>>>>> minimum delay before one can push the button again. A contestant
>>> can
>>>>> not
>>>>> judge the timing to the microsecond, but Watson probably can. This
>>>>> seems
>>>>> to be a great advantage for the computer. Perhaps Watson should
>>> signal
>>>>> when it has found a question (well before the spoken answer has
>>> finished
>>>>> being read), and then resignal at the delay time to which a human
>>>>> contestant is limited.
>>>>>
>>>>> One often sees that several contestants on Jeopardy are pushing the
>>>>> button,
>>>>> but one wins on timing. How's that going to work out on Jeopardy?
>>>>>
>>>>> -- doug f
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sun, February 13, 2011 17:25, Patrick Durusau said:
>>>>>> Jack,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2/13/2011 5:00 PM, Jack Park wrote:
>>>>>>> Returning to the original thread, I've noticed that the Web is
>>> crowing
>>>>>>> over the fact that Watson is running under Linux.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> Do you know if Linux was chosen so the Watson team would not have
>>> to
>>>>>> pay
>>>>>> licensing fees to the AS/400 division? ;-)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Minsky did not sound bitter to me.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Disappointed that the news media has bestowed the AI crown on a
>>> system
>>>>>> with no more understanding of Jeopardy than an orrery has of
>>>>>> astrophysics, but not bitter.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Disappointment is understandable when a lifetime of work is made
>>> into a
>>>>>> carnival sideshow type event. Jeopardy no more measures
>>> intelligence
>>>>>> than a standard IQ test. Both measure being good at the skills
>>> required
>>>>>> by each one. Nothing more, nothing less.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Hope you are having a great weekend!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Patrick
>>>>>>> Jack
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 13, 2011 at 9:35 AM, Peter Yim<peter.yim@xxxxxxxx>
>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>> Thank you, Bill.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I concur with Bill Andersen that this spun-off conversation about
>>> the
>>>>>>>> military or politicians should be taken elsewhere. So, please.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The subject is "iBM Watson on Jeopardy" and that's a fascinating
>>>>>>>> topic
>>>>>>>> ... continue on that by all means.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Thanks& regards. =ppy
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Peter Yim
>>>>>>>> Co-convener, ONTOLOG
>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Feb 13, 2011 7:56 AM, "Bill Andersen"<andersen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Ahem... Anyone in this conversation been in the military or have
>>>>>>>>> credentials in military history? One good reason I'd rather not
>>> see
>>>>>>>>> this conversation on ontolog. Another is that it's way out of
>>> scope
>>>>>>>>> and bordering on political - and those of you who know me know
>>> you
>>>>>>>>> don't want me to go there.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> So please take this somewhere else (but include me - I'd love to
>>> get
>>>>>>>>> into this one)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Bill
>>>>>>>>> On Feb 13, 2011, at 8:18, "John F. Sowa"<sowa@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> Vincent and Rich,
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> JFS
>>>>>>>>>>>> That is also true of people. As the saying goes, generals are
>>>>>>>>>>>> very good at fighting the last war, but not the current one.
>>>>>>>>>> VW
>>>>>>>>>>> If that saying were true, there'd be ZERO
>>>>>>>>>>> national security - for any country.
>>>>>>>>>> You need to study military history. The leaders who win
>>>>>>>>>> are the ones who can innovate to meet changing conditions.
>>>>>>>>>> But most leaders in every field aren't innovative -- they
>>>>>>>>>> just repeat what worked last time.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> RC
>>>>>>>>>>> we are buying a bunch of F-35's to fight international
>>> terrorism.
>>>>>>>>>> That is comparable to the French building the Maginot line
>>> after WW
>>>>>>>>>> I.
>>>>>>>>>> It's a hugely expensive waste of money on systems that would
>>> have
>>>>>>>>>> been useful in the past.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> VW
>>>>>>>>>>> I'll just repeat one of my earlier statements: "There are lots
>>>>>>>>>>> of sayings among us which should be relegated to the past -
>>>>>>>>>>> and left there - where they belong..."
>>>>>>>>>> You can repeat that, but it won't make it true.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> A better guideline is one of my favorite quotations from
>>>>>>>>>> Alfred North Whitehead:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> "Every great truth is only half true."
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> That means that every proverb, principle, or ideology has
>>>>>>>>>> to be re-evaluated in terms of current conditions in order
>>>>>>>>>> to determine which half is appropriate.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The most dangerous offenders are politicians who repeat
>>>>>>>>>> half truths until they make the voters believe them.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> John
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Patrick Durusau
>>>>>> patrick@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>>> Chair, V1 - US TAG to JTC 1/SC 34
>>>>>> Convener, JTC 1/SC 34/WG 3 (Topic Maps)
>>>>>> Editor, OpenDocument Format TC (OASIS), Project Editor ISO/IEC
>>> 26300
>>>>>> Co-Editor, ISO/IEC 13250-1, 13250-5 (Topic Maps)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Another Word For It (blog): http://tm.durusau.net
>>>>>> Homepage: http://www.durusau.net
>>>>>> Twitter: patrickDurusau
>>>>> =============================================================
>>>>> doug foxvog doug@xxxxxxxxxx http://ProgressiveAustin.org
> =============================================================
> doug foxvog doug@xxxxxxxxxx http://ProgressiveAustin.org
>
> "I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great
> initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours."
> - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
> =============================================================
>
>
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