On Mon, February 14, 2011 12:21, Ron Wheeler said:
> So we are now worried that a computer is going to be better than humans
> at forecasting how a question will be finished? (01)
> I will be completely impressed (blown away actually) if Watson has the
> answer before the question is asked and is bouncing up and down
> screaming "I know what you want to know and I already have the answer". (02)
The question (actually in Jeopardy terms the "answer") is presented in
text form, which is then read allowed. Not only do humans often have the
answer long before the reading is finished, Watson also often has had
its answer finished (in trial runs) well before the reading is complete.
Both the humans and Watson must wait until the right time before
signaling that they have an answer. (03)
> Much higher expectations than I originally had! (04)
I'll be interested in what questions it does not answer. I don't think
we'll have any way of knowing if it "clicks" late. (05)
> Now we have the ultimate computer. It knows the questions and the
> answers - we just have to sit back and watch the world roll on. (06)
Hah! (07)
> Ron
>
> On 14/02/2011 11:42 AM, doug foxvog wrote:
>> One key advantage that Watson has is timing. One can not push the
>> button
>> to signal a question as soon as one guesses it, but must wait until the
>> spoken answer is finished. If one pushes the button too soon, there is
>> a
>> minimum delay before one can push the button again. A contestant can
>> not
>> judge the timing to the microsecond, but Watson probably can. This
>> seems
>> to be a great advantage for the computer. Perhaps Watson should signal
>> when it has found a question (well before the spoken answer has finished
>> being read), and then resignal at the delay time to which a human
>> contestant is limited.
>>
>> One often sees that several contestants on Jeopardy are pushing the
>> button,
>> but one wins on timing. How's that going to work out on Jeopardy?
>>
>> -- doug f
>>
>> On Sun, February 13, 2011 17:25, Patrick Durusau said:
>>> Jack,
>>>
>>> On 2/13/2011 5:00 PM, Jack Park wrote:
>>>> Returning to the original thread, I've noticed that the Web is crowing
>>>> over the fact that Watson is running under Linux.
>>>>
>>> Do you know if Linux was chosen so the Watson team would not have to
>>> pay
>>> licensing fees to the AS/400 division? ;-)
>>>
>>> Minsky did not sound bitter to me.
>>>
>>> Disappointed that the news media has bestowed the AI crown on a system
>>> with no more understanding of Jeopardy than an orrery has of
>>> astrophysics, but not bitter.
>>>
>>> Disappointment is understandable when a lifetime of work is made into a
>>> carnival sideshow type event. Jeopardy no more measures intelligence
>>> than a standard IQ test. Both measure being good at the skills required
>>> by each one. Nothing more, nothing less.
>>>
>>> Hope you are having a great weekend!
>>>
>>> Patrick
>>>> Jack
>>>>
>>>> On Sun, Feb 13, 2011 at 9:35 AM, Peter Yim<peter.yim@xxxxxxxx>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>> Thank you, Bill.
>>>>>
>>>>> I concur with Bill Andersen that this spun-off conversation about the
>>>>> military or politicians should be taken elsewhere. So, please.
>>>>>
>>>>> The subject is "iBM Watson on Jeopardy" and that's a fascinating
>>>>> topic
>>>>> ... continue on that by all means.
>>>>>
>>>>> Thanks& regards. =ppy
>>>>>
>>>>> Peter Yim
>>>>> Co-convener, ONTOLOG
>>>>> --
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Feb 13, 2011 7:56 AM, "Bill Andersen"<andersen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> Ahem... Anyone in this conversation been in the military or have
>>>>>> credentials in military history? One good reason I'd rather not see
>>>>>> this conversation on ontolog. Another is that it's way out of scope
>>>>>> and bordering on political - and those of you who know me know you
>>>>>> don't want me to go there.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So please take this somewhere else (but include me - I'd love to get
>>>>>> into this one)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Bill
>>>>>> On Feb 13, 2011, at 8:18, "John F. Sowa"<sowa@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Vincent and Rich,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> JFS
>>>>>>>>> That is also true of people. As the saying goes, generals are
>>>>>>>>> very good at fighting the last war, but not the current one.
>>>>>>> VW
>>>>>>>> If that saying were true, there'd be ZERO
>>>>>>>> national security - for any country.
>>>>>>> You need to study military history. The leaders who win
>>>>>>> are the ones who can innovate to meet changing conditions.
>>>>>>> But most leaders in every field aren't innovative -- they
>>>>>>> just repeat what worked last time.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> RC
>>>>>>>> we are buying a bunch of F-35's to fight international terrorism.
>>>>>>> That is comparable to the French building the Maginot line after WW
>>>>>>> I.
>>>>>>> It's a hugely expensive waste of money on systems that would have
>>>>>>> been useful in the past.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> VW
>>>>>>>> I'll just repeat one of my earlier statements: "There are lots
>>>>>>>> of sayings among us which should be relegated to the past -
>>>>>>>> and left there - where they belong..."
>>>>>>> You can repeat that, but it won't make it true.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> A better guideline is one of my favorite quotations from
>>>>>>> Alfred North Whitehead:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "Every great truth is only half true."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That means that every proverb, principle, or ideology has
>>>>>>> to be re-evaluated in terms of current conditions in order
>>>>>>> to determine which half is appropriate.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The most dangerous offenders are politicians who repeat
>>>>>>> half truths until they make the voters believe them.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> John
>>>>>>>
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>>> --
>>> Patrick Durusau
>>> patrick@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Chair, V1 - US TAG to JTC 1/SC 34
>>> Convener, JTC 1/SC 34/WG 3 (Topic Maps)
>>> Editor, OpenDocument Format TC (OASIS), Project Editor ISO/IEC 26300
>>> Co-Editor, ISO/IEC 13250-1, 13250-5 (Topic Maps)
>>>
>>> Another Word For It (blog): http://tm.durusau.net
>>> Homepage: http://www.durusau.net
>>> Twitter: patrickDurusau
>>>
>>>
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>>
>> =============================================================
>> doug foxvog doug@xxxxxxxxxx http://ProgressiveAustin.org
>>
>> "I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great
>> initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours."
>> - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
>> =============================================================
>>
>>
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>
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> (08)
=============================================================
doug foxvog doug@xxxxxxxxxx http://ProgressiveAustin.org (09)
"I speak as an American to the leaders of my own nation. The great
initiative in this war is ours. The initiative to stop it must be ours."
- Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
============================================================= (010)
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