Patrick Cassidy wrote: (01)
> Also, Watson gave "the 1920's" when the
> answer ("the twenties") the decade) had already been declared wrong. I
> wonder what lessons Watson's developers will derived from those blunders.
> (02)
Bear in mind that Watson didn't have audio input. Someone would have
had to key in the response given by a previous contestant, and that
would have doubtless introduced a significant delay. Watson simply
didn't know what the prior response had been. It couldn't hear, and no
one told it. (03)
I'm not sure that a wrong answer is a 'blunder', where its information
base was apparently faulty, as in the 1920s case. Not everything one
reads is accurate. (04)
The problem with "finis" was that it knew the Latin word for "end", and
it went with that, probably because it couldn't match "terminus" with
"terminal". That might mean it misunderstood "based on the Latin word
for 'end', or didn't assign enough significance to the 'based on' part.
I would be surprised if a NLP algorithm didn't know about 'stemming',
but the direct reference to the Latin word may well have altered its
preference. (I didn't see what Watson's second best answer was when it
guessed "finis".) Further, Watson doesn't know about 'common speech'
per se, it uses frequency of occurrence in its reference corpora as a
gauge. I think this example demonstrates the behavior of its
probabilistic reasoning quite well, and in some sense matches the
dilemmas of reasoning and credibility algorithms in intelligence circles. (05)
-Ed (06)
P.S. I'm sure many were reminded of the HAL9000. I believe Clarke wrote
the tale about 65 years ago. (07)
--
Edward J. Barkmeyer Email: edbark@xxxxxxxx
National Institute of Standards & Technology
Manufacturing Systems Integration Division
100 Bureau Drive, Stop 8263 Tel: +1 301-975-3528
Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8263 Cel: +1 240-672-5800 (08)
"The opinions expressed above do not reflect consensus of NIST,
and have not been reviewed by any Government authority." (09)
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