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On 10/02/2014 9:13 AM, Kingsley Idehen
wrote:
On 2/9/14 9:11 PM, Ron Wheeler wrote:
On 09/02/2014 2:28 PM, Kingsley
Idehen wrote:
On 2/8/14 10:03 PM, Ron Wheeler wrote:
<quote>
Yes, but those situations will be beneficial when the focal
point is dealing with issues that human beings don't handle
well. Typical characteristics of such issues include:
1. physically challenging
2. emotionally challenging
3. repetition laden.
</quote>
I think that this characterization of computer capabilities
is too "last century".
I disagree.
It does not take into account systems
like Google, Watson or the BI capabilities available today.
Hmm..
Google enables me find documents faster, that's it.
Google finds the documents. I ranks them in order of relevance
based on your query and your past interests as evidenced by your
web browsing.
This was once the job of librarians and research assistants. It
was considered a skilled occupation.
Sorta, but Google can be much better than it is right now, and a
lot of said improvement will come from those librarians who can
now leverage the new realm of the Web. BTW -- this is already
happening via the schema.org effort, a lot of folks with librarian
skills are making valuable contributions to the aforementioned
effort.
Computer programs and systems are designed by people, at least at
the moment.
The point of the discussion is that computers are taking over tasks
that previously where considered to be in domains in which we
thought in the last century were impossible.
Google and other search engines will continue to improve but it is
already at a place where very few people require the services of
reference librarians to find information.
Chess playing programs that run on your smartphone can beat world
masters.
Watson will help subject-matter experts find relevant insights
faster. A surgeon might perform a more informed surgical
operation based on output from Watson. Surgeons may even
conclude that a surgery could be completed handled by a
machine, but none of that would lead to the elimination of
humans beings in the domain of surgery.
So the computers will decide what surgery is to be performed and
the surgeon will do the manual labour. :-)
Methinks, the other way around. Sometimes a mix of both. We only
get into trouble when human judgement if completely eradicated
from the system
Human overrides for any mechanization designed and implemented by
humans is fundamental. Failure to implement this basic principle
is a shortcut to serious problems with machines.
We will likely kill an awful lot of people by failing to embrace
technologies that give better results than humans, all because we
are afraid that it might make a mistake in a small number of cases.
We accept that humans are pretty bad at driving or running hospitals
because they have "always" done those tasks and we can understand
the nature of their mistakes and appreciate the randomness of it
all. This enables us to overlook the huge death tolls in these
areas.
Will the continued involvement of humans in the
process be because we are required or because we can not give it
up.
Because we are required. We are imperfect, and as a consequence we
make imperfect programs etc.. Our ability to evolve based a broad
cocktail of factors (many of which we humans can't quite codify)
is what distinguishes us from others animals on this planet, as
far as I know, right now.
We are imperfect and make imperfect decisions and come to the wrong
conclusions based on our simplification of analysis since we are
unable to handle large amounts of data
Computers are productivity tools. They will not replace human
beings. Augmentation is their destiny.
Agreed. We are not considering replacing the human race just
trying to understand how computers are going to develop.
Computers will become better productivity tools for us. They are
not supposed to replace us, completely.
What would be the point of that? They will replace us in many job
roles and increasingly, this will be higher and higher up the food
chain.
To this I would add the cases where
4. the relationship between concepts can best be discerned
by seeking patterns in large amounts of data (BIG data)
Sure, but I put that under the category "physically
challenging".
That is a bit of a stretch of the meaning of "physical
challenging".
It is physically challenging for we humans to deal with masses of
data.
You mean that we can't lift the paper? :-)
It is beyond our mental capabilities. It is "mentally challenging".
Our mix of memory and processing power is insufficient to do the
analysis.
Unless you want to make mental and physical as synonyms which would
be a stretch in an ontology forum.
Being able to remember millions of facts and look
for patterns is not something that a human could do even given
an unlimited number of hours or weeks or superhuman endurance.
But isn't that my point re., "physically challenging?"
5. the relationships are complex and
the human strength of intelligently reducing the scope of
problems to discern simple relationships makes finding
subtle relationships difficult and leads to erroneous
conclusions (multivariate analysis - http://freakonomics.com/)
Sure, but I put that under the following categories:
1. physically challenging
2 emotionally challenging .
It is neither of these.
Our brains are physical parts of our bodies.
Our brain can be functioning completely within specifications and
not be under any physical stress when we reach the limits of our
mental capacity.
Emotion does fiddle with our ability to be objective, a lot of the
time.
It is more than emotion, we just can not remember enough information
and interim calculation results to do multivariate analysis on
millions of datapoints.
It is just too complicated for humans to do.
Yes, and I don't see how we are disagreeing in essence.
We can not remember enough facts in a sufficient
level of detail to do the analysis required to get the right
answer.
Again, see my comments above.
Kingsley
Ron
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Regards,
Kingsley Idehen
Founder & CEO
OpenLink Software
Company Web: http://www.openlinksw.com
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