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Re: [ontolog-forum] Model or Reality

To: <edbark@xxxxxxxx>, <ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: <matthew.west@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 08:35:37 +0100
Message-id: <808637A57BC3454FA660801A3995FA8F057F8754@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Dear Ed,    (01)

> > They also fail when our models do not accommodate for 
> interaction and
> > change and the immensity of external factors that, in the 
> real world,
> > play such a big role.
> Yes.  That is what I meant by not being omniscient.  If we 
> overlook a factor 
> that plays a big role, then when that factor comes into play, 
> the bridge 
> fails.  Such was the fate of the bridge in Seattle.
> But the surprise failures are those that involve a factor 
> that was not 
> considered at all, and not commonly considered in the trade.  
> How do you build 
> an "X factor" defense for that?  We do the analysis of these 
> failures in order 
> to learn from them!  And the approach is pure Sherlock 
> Holmes:  When you have 
> eliminated the impossible, whatever is left, however 
> unlikely, must be the 
> explanation.  The scientific requirement, however, is then to 
> show that that 
> hypothesis leads to the result that was observed.  The end is 
> advancement of 
> our knowledge, not a better "X factor".    (02)

MW: Hence the engineer's promise: "We promise not to kill you
the same way twice".    (03)

Regards    (04)

Matthew West
Reference Data Architecture and Standards Manager
Shell International Petroleum Company Limited
Registered in England and Wales
Registered number: 621148
Registered office: Shell Centre, London SE1 7NA, United Kingdom    (05)

Tel: +44 20 7934 4490 Mobile: +44 7796 336538
Email: matthew.west@xxxxxxxxx
http://www.matthew-west.org.uk/    (06)

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