> We need to keep George Box's comment in mind: "All models are bad, some
>models are useful." (01)
Actually, Box wrote: Essentially, all models are wrong, but some models are
useful. (02)
According to Wikipedia, this comes from a book by Box and Norman Draper in
1987, which is very late in both careers. I previously found a reference for
this aphorism to a George Box monograph in 1979. And I found that surprising,
since I had heard the aphorism when I was doing traffic models for HUD in the
late 1960s. (03)
Further research attributes "all models are wrong, but some are useful" to W.
Edwards Deming (a famous economist and statistician) in 1947! (As it happens,
the project leader on the HUD project was a Ph.D. economist.) Interestingly,
George Box was also a statistician of note, but primarily in the domain of
control systems, and his career began in the late 1950s. It is entirely
possible that the aphorism was long known among statisticians before it was
written in a book, and may indeed predate both of these significant persons.
(In any case, the Wikipedia citation is highly unlikely to be the original.) (04)
I am not really familiar with Deming's work, but according to Wikipedia, one of
Deming's Four Principles of Profound Knowledge (1986?) was "a theory of
knowledge", which presumably makes him a relevant contributor to the genre of
this Forum. (05)
-Ed (06)
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ontolog-forum-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:ontolog-forum-
> bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of John Bottoms
> Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2014 2:30 PM
> To: ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [ontolog-forum] Sabotaging a communication system is not a
> new idea
>
> I have looked in to modeling a bit. The latest research indicates that a human
> has about 80B neurons of about 100 types. (I have been discussing this with
> Dr. Herculano-Houzel.)
> > http://www.livescience.com/18749-human-brain-cell-number.html
> There are some indications that there are neuronal couplets that account for
> as many as 40% of the 80B neurons. I made an estimate of the model for a
> neuronal couplet and it takes about 30 op-amps to model the most basic
> pathways within the couplet.That says nothing about the number or
> strengths of the interface circuits or the timings of the control system. So,
> this is non-trivial work and is not likely to yield a true model for some
>time. I
> don't know if the Elegans models include information on the types of
> neurons.
>
> The work with both trees and humans indicate that there are interfaces with
> viruses that are useful also. Recently a virus bacteriophage was detected
> (noticed is more likely) that is ancient and lives in the human gut. This
> bacteriophage might have the task of maintaining the bacterial levels in the
> gut across a number of different food nutrients. Others point to the virus as
>a
> contributor to obesity.
> >
> http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140724/ncomms5498/full/ncomms5
> 498.ht
> > ml
>
> We are complex organizations and tightly tied to our environment. We need
> to keep George Box's comment in mind: "All models are bad, some models
> are useful."
> Which is true of these is true for the Elegans work?
>
> -John Bottoms
> Concord, MA USA
>
> On 11/25/2014 1:59 PM, Rich Cooper wrote:
> > I remember a recent article saying that trees under stress (fire,
> > disease, termites, ...) send specific proteins out to the rest of the
> > forest, and the sensing plants in the area that detect the signals
> > start preparing to survive the threat in question.
> >
> > So there are deep chemical pathways, in paramecia, in plants, and
> > certainly within mammal brains, by which the cells intercommunicate.
> > Figuring that out will take an enormous amount of time and work.
> >
> >
> > -Rich
> >
> > Sincerely,
> > Rich Cooper
> > EnglishLogicKernel.com
> > Rich AT EnglishLogicKernel DOT com
> > 9 4 9 \ 5 2 5 - 5 7 1 2
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: ontolog-forum-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:ontolog-forum-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of John F
> > Sowa
> > Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2014 10:40 AM
> > To: ontolog-forum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [ontolog-forum] Sabotaging a communication system is not
> > a new idea
> >
> > On 11/25/2014 1:10 PM, Michael Brunnbauer wrote:
> >> If I remember right, the problem is that the
> > connectome does
> >> not include synaptic strength and other
> > important details and
> >> that you have to simulate body and environment
> > in great detail
> >> too to get the right inputs and test the
> > simulation. The chemistry
> >> and physics matters - especially with only 302
> > neurons.
> >
> > All those points are important.
> >
> > Furthermore, a single-celled paramecium, which has no neurons of any
> > kind, exhibits complex behavior: finding food, mating, recognizing
> > obstacles, and "remembering" them long enough to navigate around them.
> >
> > Experiments show that a paramecium is also capable of learning
> > -- in the sense that it responds faster to stimuli that it had
> > previously encountered and responded to successfully.
> >
> > Since the structures of any cell of any animal (including neurons) are
> > as complex as those in a paramecium, it seems likely that each neuron
> > has similar capabilities. That implies that the so-called "neural
> > networks" that treat each neuron as a simple switch are grossly
> > oversimplified.
> >
> > John
> >
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