OntologySummit2010: Future "Developments" - Synthesis of the Discussion    (25H1)

This is the workspace for the co-champions to synthesize the discussion on this track.    (25H2)

Track Label: Requirements - Subtrack Label: Future Developments    (25H3)

Track Co-champions: ElizabethFlorescu and PeterYim    (25H4)

Mission: to develop an outlook on the "Future of Ontologists." we will try to gain insight from the perspectives of:    (25H5)

Pertinent questions:    (25H9)


Study on the Future of Ontologists, their Education and the Field of Ontology: Executive Summary    (25HK)

by ElizabethFlorescu & PeterYim    (2AVB)

The design of an education strategy and a set of training material to properly "Create the Ontologists of the Future," requires some preliminary information on what the future for ontologists might look like. To that end, a future studies technique known as Real-Time Delphi (RTDelphi) was used to collect input from a panel comprising ontology domain experts, those who can influence the future of the field, and visionaries who understand what the potential impact of Ontology might be.    (2AVC)

During OntologySummit2010 Panel Session-1 (17-Dec-2009), the community provided valuable input that constituted the base for identifying the developments to be considered for the RTDelphi. (In future researchers' lingo, a "development" is an event or a fact that could have a significant impact on the future of a domain.) The collected input from that virtual community discussion were then clustered and a set of 16 developments were used in the "Future of Ontologists" study RTDelphi questionnaire. For each development, the participants were invited to give input as of the time frame the development would occur, as well as comments on factors that might help and/or hinder its happening. The key question for each development was “What is your time estimate for this development to happen?” Panelists were also invited to support their answers with reasons, drivers that may help bring about the development in question, as well as barriers and ways to mitigate those barriers. In the RTDelphi, respondents participate by filling out an online questionnaire, and the results –– both numerical and qualitative –– are updated instantly as responses are submitted. Respondents can –– and are encouraged to –– revisit the questionnaire as many times as they want. Each time, they are shown their own responses as well as the updated answers of the others panelists (although all responses were kept anonymous), and they can revise and change their own input based on this feedback.    (2AVD)

The use of the online Real-Time Delphi technique and tools allowed us to reduce the time it takes to produce results from a traditional Delphi study (which nominally takes months) to a matter of a couple of weeks.    (2AVE)

A total of 35 people participated in the study: 28 from North America, 5 from Europe, and 2 from South America.    (2AVF)

The sectoral demographic was more balanced:    (2AVG)

A summary of the collected input from the RTDelphi study can be found here.    (2AVN)

The panelists' estimates of when each of the "developments" is likely to happen were analyzed, ranked, and shown in a graphic form – see Figure 1 (below) - to help provide a quick visualization on the level of consensus, polarization of opinions, or if the results were inconclusive among the panelists.    (2AVO)

Figure 1: "When will it happen?" - a time-ranked visual of the collected input    (2AVQ)

http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/work/OntologySummit2010/studies/RTDelphi-3/RTDelphi_Future-of-Ontologists_timeframe-ranked-visual_v1-1b.jpg    (2AVP)

 [ a rendering of the above visual with the supporting numbers for the ranking can be found below ]    (2EQF)

Key findings and observations:    (2AVR)

Synthesizing the input from both the Panel-1 session and the RTDelphi input, we see a strong urge by the community toward:    (2AW0)

We encourage those who are interested to look over the wide range of opinions from the collected input to make your own assessments and use that to support your own decision making as appropriate.    (2AW6)

 A presentation on the above was made during our Panel-5 session - see the archive (slides, audio etc.) of it 
 at: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?ConferenceCall_2010_03_04     (2AW7)

Community input collected from the RTDelphi Study    (2ARP)

Summary of collected input    (2ARQ)

http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/work/OntologySummit2010/studies/RTDelphi-3/RTDelphi_Future-of-Ontologists_collected-input-summary_20100225c.jpg    (2ARV)

http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/work/OntologySummit2010/studies/RTDelphi-3/RTDelphi_Future-of-Ontologists_timeframe-ranked_20100225c.jpg    (2AVA)

"When will it happen?" - a time-ranked visual of the collected input (with the supporting numbers)    (2ARX)

http://ontolog.cim3.net/file/work/OntologySummit2010/studies/RTDelphi-3/RTDelphi_Future-of-Ontologists_timeframe-ranked-visual_v1-1a.jpg    (2ARW)

Clustering of input collected at the 2009.12.17 Panel-1 session    (279C)

(ref. community Input: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?ConferenceCall_2009_12_17#nid25QA )    (279D)

(ref. from these input, 16 "developments" were identified and selected to be used on our RTDelphi Study - see: http://ontolog.cim3.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?OntologySummit2010_PertinentQuestions#nid2591 )    (28FA)

Developments:    (279E)

As a "science" ...    (279F)

As an "engineering" ...    (279K)

As a "cross-disciplinary" department in its own rights ...    (279Q)

Mainstream recognition ...    (279V)

Trends:    (27A1)

How many "ontologists" needed in 20 years?    (27AB)

Future of ontology in academia:    (27AI)

What needs to happen ... before we have Ontology Depts in universities and enterprises?    (27AT)

What does the general public need to know about "ontology"?    (27B8)

 This page is maintained by ElizabethFlorescu and PeterYim 
 Please do not edit or modify it yourself; send any editing request to any one of the individuals named above.    (25HL)